How Fast Will Cloud Computing be Embraced by Companies?

As virtualization seems like it might be eventually destined for cloud computing, I don’t think the adoption rate will be a tidal wave of activity anytime soon. There are still too many technical and organizational challenges to overcome before ubiquitous computing  is the standard.

Cloud computing essentially asks companies to use servers and infrastructure that they may not know anything about to trust the cloud with their data.

To say most of these companies are risk averse is an understatement.

One recent professional service engagement we completed illustrates the organizational challenges. The client enlisted the software vendor’s professional services team even though they knew that our company would be delivering the services.  The software vendor charged them double what we would have charged,  and did nothing except pass paper around, just so middle management  could tell upper management that they had engaged the software vendor. This has happened many times over the years.

Hurting the adoption rate further will be the legitmate concern about the security of private data and its reliability. The horror story at Journalspace as told by TechCrunch, might technically fall under software as a service (SaaS) but the core issue is the same.

Companies will have to build up both technically and mentally to accept clouds. The implementation will probably sound similar to the adoption of virtualization itself.

1. The organization starts with test machines
2. Infrastucture services and security issues are resolved (this may take awhile considering security is still immature for virtualization)
3. It proves that it is a reliable solution
4. Machines that are not critical are deployed
5. Management can count on the ROI; it is embraced as a viable solution.
6. Good cloud candidates are picked and deployed
7. The rest of the IT management world reads about successful cloud stories and decides to try it

So a very rough timeline for a cutting edge, aggressive company with budget might go like:

(1.) This year, 2009 (2.) Assuming simple servers, 2010 (3.)Usually takes a year or so for uninitiated technical and management to pay attention,  2011-2012 (4) 2012 (5) 2013 (6) 2013-2014 (7) If the management are frequent bloggers and speakers to get the word of ROI out, we might use 2014 as the start point where the industry begins thinking about wide spread adoption.